Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 18:00 · Troyes vs Laval
Likeliest: Troyes win · 47%
A 28% away win. The market says 18%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Troyes47%59%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+3
OursMarket
Laval28%18%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 41% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 76% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Troyes
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Apr 25 · at Saint-Étienne (A)3-0
- Apr 18 · v Boulogne (H)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Montpellier (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Dunkerque (H)5-1
Laval
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 24 · v Rodez (H)0-0
- Apr 20 · at Dunkerque (A)2-0
- Apr 10 · v Reims (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Red Star (A)0-0
- Mar 20 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Troyes | Laval |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.