Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:45 · Troyes vs Paris FC
Likeliest: Paris FC win · 54%
A 54% away win. The market says 41%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Troyes27%32%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%27%−8
OursMarket
Paris FC54%41%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 60% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 59% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 73% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 43% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Troyes
LossWinWinWinLoss
- May 9 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Laval (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Saint-Étienne (A)3-0
- Apr 18 · v Boulogne (H)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Rodez (A)1-2
Paris FC
No recent results tracked.
| Last 10 games | Troyes | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.