Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:45 · Troyes vs RC Lens
Likeliest: RC Lens win · 55%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Troyes20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
RC Lens55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Troyes
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Angers (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Lille (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v RC Strasbourg (H)2-6
- Aug 29 · at Lorient (A)2-1
RC Lens
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v Sporting (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at AS Monaco (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Le Mans (A)2-2
- Sep 10 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Troyes | RC Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.