Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:30 · TS Galaxy vs Chippa United
Likeliest: TS Galaxy win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TS Galaxy40%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+2
OursMarket
Chippa United27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TS Galaxy
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Kruger United (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Sekhukhune United (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Marumo Gallants FC (A)3-2
- Aug 16 · v Lamontville Golden Arrows (H)0-0
- Aug 11 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)2-3
Chippa United
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Milford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Siwelele FC (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Orlando Pirates (H)0-3
- Aug 11 · v Richards Bay FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | TS Galaxy | Chippa United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.