Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 17 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim40%38%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen36%37%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 50% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Jan 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)5-1
- Dec 20 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-0
- Dec 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 10 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)1-4
- Dec 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
- Dec 10 · v Newcastle United (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
TSG Hoffenheim form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record