Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen42%40%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)2-1
- Oct 15 · v Beşiktaş (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-3
- Sep 17 · at OFI Crete (A)0-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · at Lech Poznań (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v NK Celje (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
TSG Hoffenheim form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record