Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Beşiktaş27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-3
- Sep 17 · at OFI Crete (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-3
Beşiktaş
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Kocaelispor (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)2-3
- Sep 17 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)4-1
- Sep 11 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fenerbahçe (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.