Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 41%
We make it 71% for both teams to score. The market says 65%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund41%36%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 65% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 52% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
- Mar 14 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Heidenheim (A)4-2
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 11 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Apr 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
TSG Hoffenheim form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record