Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 40%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim39%32%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−3
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund40%43%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 66% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 67% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 43% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Köln (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Erzgebirge Aue (A)4-0
- May 16 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
- May 9 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- May 2 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 1 · at Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-0
- May 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
- May 3 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
TSG Hoffenheim form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record