Bundesliga (Germany) · Wed, Jan 14 · 19:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 48%
A 30% away win. The market says 25%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim48%50%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%25%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 75% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 67% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-0
- Dec 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-0
- Nov 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossWinLossLossWin
- Jan 11 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
- Dec 19 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-3
- Dec 5 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Dec 2 · v St. Pauli (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
TSG Hoffenheim form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record