Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 29 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 41%
A 39% away win. The market says 21%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim41%56%−15
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
FC Augsburg39%21%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 61% | +20 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 79% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 73% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Nov 2 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
- Oct 25 · v Heidenheim (H)3-1
- Oct 19 · at St. Pauli (A)3-0
FC Augsburg
LossLossLossLossWin
- Nov 22 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-0
- Nov 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-3
- Oct 31 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
- Oct 28 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-6
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.