Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 31 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 48%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim48%52%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin28%22%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 78% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 70% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Jan 27 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
- Jan 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)5-1
- Dec 20 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-0
FC Union Berlin
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 24 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-3
- Jan 18 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Jan 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 20 · at FC Köln (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
TSG Hoffenheim form·FC Union Berlin form·Head-to-head record