Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 43%
A 33% away win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim43%56%−13
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0533%21%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 44% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 73% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
- Mar 14 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Heidenheim (A)4-2
- Feb 28 · v St. Pauli (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at FC Köln (A)2-2
FSV Mainz 05
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Sigma Olomouc (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- Mar 12 · at Sigma Olomouc (A)0-0
- Mar 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.