Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 13 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 40%
A 34% away win. The market says 22%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim40%55%−15
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Hamburger SV34%22%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 78% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 71% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 7 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-0
- Nov 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Nov 2 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
Hamburger SV
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 7 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-2
- Dec 3 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Nov 8 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.