Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim69%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Hamburger SV13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-3
- Sep 17 · at OFI Crete (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Köln (A)2-3
Hamburger SV
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v 1. FC Köln (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
- Sep 6 · v 1. FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-5
- Aug 29 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · at SC Verl (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.