Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 9 · 16:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim51%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Heidenheim24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 1 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-0
- Feb 23 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)1-1
- Feb 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-4
- Feb 2 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-3
Heidenheim
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Mar 1 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-3
- Feb 23 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-2
- Feb 13 · at FC København (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.