Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)2-1
- Oct 15 · v Beşiktaş (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-3
- Sep 17 · at OFI Crete (A)0-2
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Nice (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-2
- Oct 9 · at RC Lens (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Stade Rennais (H)4-0
- Sep 16 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.