Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 28 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 50%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim50%65%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
St. Pauli27%15%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 85% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 35% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 82% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 21 · at FC Köln (A)2-2
- Feb 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-0
- Feb 8 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
- Jan 31 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Jan 27 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
St. Pauli
LossLossWinLossWin
- Feb 22 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Feb 3 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.