Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 2 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 42%
We make it 76% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 70%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim42%40%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 53% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 26 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Apr 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-4
- Apr 12 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.