Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Köln (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Erzgebirge Aue (A)4-0
- May 16 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
- May 9 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 9 · v Viking FK (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v 1. FC Köln (H)4-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
- Aug 21 · at F.C. Hansa Rostock (A)4-0
- May 23 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.