Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 14 · 14:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 56%
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 60%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim56%64%−9
OursMarket
Draw20%20%+1
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg24%16%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 60% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 84% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 36% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 80% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 7 · at Heidenheim (A)4-2
- Feb 28 · v St. Pauli (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at FC Köln (A)2-2
- Feb 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-0
- Feb 8 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
VfL Wolfsburg
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Feb 21 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-3
- Feb 15 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-2
- Feb 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.