Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 13:30 · TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 62%
We make it 75% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 69%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSG Hoffenheim62%64%−3
OursMarket
Draw20%19%+1
OursMarket
Werder Bremen18%17%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 83% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 36% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 79% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- May 2 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
Werder Bremen
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- May 2 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Köln (A)1-3
- Apr 4 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | TSG Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.