Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:30 · TSV Hartberg vs LASK
Likeliest: LASK win · 78%
A 78% away win. The market says 74%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSV Hartberg6%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
LASK78%74%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 11% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSV Hartberg
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at WSG Tirol (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v SV Ried (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Austria Wien (H)0-2
- Aug 8 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)0-2
LASK
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 13 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · at AEK Athens (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)3-0
- Aug 25 · v Celtic (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | TSV Hartberg | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.