Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:30 · TSV Hartberg vs SC Austria Lustenau
Likeliest: TSV Hartberg win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSV Hartberg43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
SC Austria Lustenau29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSV Hartberg
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · v LASK (H)3-3
- Sep 13 · at WSG Tirol (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v SV Ried (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Austria Wien (H)0-2
SC Austria Lustenau
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Austria Wien (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | TSV Hartberg | SC Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-3 | 2-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.