Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
Likeliest: TSV Hartberg win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSV Hartberg41%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Wolfsberger AC32%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSV Hartberg
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-3
- Oct 11 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)4-3
- Sep 20 · v LASK (H)3-3
- Sep 13 · at WSG Tirol (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v SV Ried (H)3-2
Wolfsberger AC
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · at SV Ried (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)0-3
- Sep 1 · v LASK (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.