3. Liga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:30 · TSV Havelse vs 1. FC Saarbrücken
Likeliest: 1. FC Saarbrücken win · 64%
Likely score: 1–3
A 64% away win. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TSV Havelse17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−2
OursMarket
1. FC Saarbrücken64%58%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 42% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 26% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 3.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TSV Havelse
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at SV Meppen (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · v FC Würzburger Kickers (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)0-5
- Sep 25 · v SC Fortuna Köln (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at MSV Duisburg (A)1-2
1. FC Saarbrücken
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)3-1
- Oct 13 · v MSV Duisburg (H)2-4
- Oct 10 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Preußen Münster (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | TSV Havelse | 1. FC Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.