Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Thu, Sep 24 · 19:00 · Tunisia vs Uganda
Likeliest: Uganda win · 40%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 40%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tunisia32%67%−35
OursMarket
Draw28%22%+5
OursMarket
Uganda40%11%+30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 40% | +19 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 89% | −30 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 33% | +35 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 86% | −42 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tunisia
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Jun 25 · v Netherlands (H)1-3
- Jun 21 · v Japan (H)0-4
- Jun 15 · at Sweden (A)1-5
- Jun 6 · at Belgium (A)0-5
- Jun 1 · at Austria (A)0-1
Uganda
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Nov 18 · at Morocco (A)0-4
- Nov 14 · v Chad (H)2-1
- Jul 24 · v Senegal (H)2-1
- Jul 22 · at Tanzania (A)0-1
- Jun 9 · v Gambia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Tunisia | Uganda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.