Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:00 · Udinese vs Bologna
Likeliest: Bologna win · 58%
A 58% away win. The market says 42%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese20%28%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Bologna58%42%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 42% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 58% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 72% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 40% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Atalanta (H)1-0
- Oct 29 · at Juventus (A)1-3
- Oct 25 · v Lecce (H)3-2
- Oct 20 · at Cremonese (A)1-1
Bologna
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Nov 9 · v Napoli (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · v Brann (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at Parma (A)3-1
- Oct 29 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Oct 26 · at Fiorentina (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.