Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Udinese vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Udinese win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Cagliari29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 14 · at Inter Milan (A)3-5
- Sep 7 · v Lazio (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · v Venezia (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Monza (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Como (H)1-1
Cagliari
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Atalanta (A)2-1
- Sep 7 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Inter Milan (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Parma (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.