Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Apr 6 · 10:30 · Udinese vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 44%
A 29% home win. The market says 18%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese29%18%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Como44%56%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 47% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 44% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 25% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 20 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Mar 7 · at Atalanta (A)2-2
- Mar 2 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Feb 23 · at Bologna (A)0-1
Como
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 22 · v Pisa (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · v Roma (H)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
- Mar 3 · v Inter (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Lecce (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.