Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 22 · 16:30 · Udinese vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 41%
A 32% home win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese32%21%+12
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Como41%53%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 28% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
WinWinLossLossWin
- Aug 15 · v Padova (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Cremonese (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
- May 2 · v Torino (H)2-0
Como
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 24 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
- May 17 · v Parma (H)1-0
- May 10 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Napoli (H)0-0
- Apr 26 · at Genoa (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.