Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Mar 2 · 19:45 · Udinese vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Udinese win · 43%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese43%29%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−8
OursMarket
Fiorentina34%40%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 45% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 52% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 71% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 42% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Feb 23 · at Bologna (A)0-1
- Feb 15 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Feb 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Jan 26 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-1
Fiorentina
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 26 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-4
- Feb 23 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Feb 19 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-0
- Feb 14 · at Como (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · v Torino (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.