Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Dec 8 · 17:00 · Udinese vs Genoa
Likeliest: Genoa win · 43%
A 43% away win. The market says 30%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese31%38%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
Genoa43%30%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 38% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 70% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 62% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 56% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 2 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Bologna (H)0-3
- Nov 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Atalanta (H)1-0
Genoa
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Dec 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Cagliari (A)3-3
- Nov 9 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Nov 3 · at Sassuolo (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.