Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 14 · 19:45 · Udinese vs Juventus
Likeliest: Udinese win · 41%
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese41%16%+25
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Juventus36%61%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 49% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 47% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 39% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 84% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 21% | +33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Mar 7 · at Atalanta (A)2-2
- Mar 2 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Feb 23 · at Bologna (A)0-1
- Feb 15 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Lecce (A)1-2
Juventus
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 7 · v Pisa (H)4-0
- Mar 1 · at Roma (A)3-3
- Feb 25 · v Galatasaray (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · v Como (H)0-2
- Feb 17 · at Galatasaray (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.