Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 27 · 17:00 · Udinese vs Lazio
Likeliest: Udinese win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 31%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese49%31%+18
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−4
OursMarket
Lazio23%38%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 41% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 48% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 62% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 69% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 45% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 21 · at Fiorentina (A)1-5
- Dec 14 · v Napoli (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · at Parma (A)2-0
Lazio
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Dec 20 · v Cremonese (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Milan (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Milan (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.