Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Sep 7 · 18:45 · Udinese vs Lazio
Likeliest: Udinese win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese44%33%+11
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Lazio28%36%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 49% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 47% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 2 · v Venezia (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Monza (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Como (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Padova (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Napoli (A)0-1
Lazio
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 30 · v Genoa (H)1-0
- Aug 24 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v Mantova (H)0-2
- May 23 · v Pisa (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Roma (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.