Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:30 · Udinese vs Lecce
Likeliest: Udinese win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Lecce21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Cagliari (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Inter Milan (A)3-5
- Sep 7 · v Lazio (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · v Venezia (H)2-1
Lecce
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at AC Milan (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Monza (H)3-2
- Sep 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Roma (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.