Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 · Udinese vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 45%
A 27% home win. The market says 22%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese27%22%+5
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Napoli45%49%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 31% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Dec 8 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Bologna (H)0-3
- Nov 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
Napoli
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 10 · at Benfica (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v Juventus (H)2-1
- Dec 3 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Roma (A)1-0
- Nov 25 · v Qarabağ (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.