Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sat, Aug 15 · 16:30 · Udinese vs Padova
Likeliest: Udinese win · 55%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese55%66%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Padova22%13%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 55% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 87% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 34% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 83% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- May 24 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Cremonese (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
- May 2 · v Torino (H)2-0
- Apr 27 · at Lazio (A)3-3
Padova
No recent results tracked.
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | — |
| Both teams scored | 10% | — |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.