Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:00 · Udinese vs Parma
Likeliest: Udinese win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese53%43%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
Parma22%25%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 48% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 63% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 11 · at AC Milan (A)3-0
- Apr 6 · v Como (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Mar 7 · at Atalanta (A)2-2
Parma
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 12 · v Napoli (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Mar 13 · at Torino (A)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.