Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Feb 2 · 19:45 · Udinese vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 43%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese32%23%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−3
OursMarket
Roma43%48%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 42% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 32% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Jan 26 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Inter (H)0-1
- Jan 10 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Jan 7 · at Torino (A)2-1
- Jan 3 · at Como (A)0-1
Roma
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 29 · at Panathinaikos (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Jan 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-0
- Jan 18 · at Torino (A)2-0
- Jan 13 · v Torino (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.