Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 2 · 13:00 · Udinese vs Torino
Likeliest: Udinese win · 45%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese45%43%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−3
OursMarket
Torino29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 45% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 27 · at Lazio (A)3-3
- Apr 18 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at AC Milan (A)3-0
- Apr 6 · v Como (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Genoa (A)2-0
Torino
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 26 · v Inter (H)2-2
- Apr 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Mar 21 · at AC Milan (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.