Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Sep 2 · 16:00 · Udinese vs Venezia
Likeliest: Udinese win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 47%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Udinese57%47%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−4
OursMarket
Venezia20%25%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 52% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 75% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 53% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 65% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Udinese
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Monza (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Como (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Padova (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Cremonese (H)0-1
Venezia
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 28 · at AC Milan (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Modena (H)3-2
- May 8 · v Palermo (H)2-0
- May 1 · at Spezia (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Udinese | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.