Friendly International (World) · Mon, Oct 5 · 13:00 · Uganda vs DR Congo
Likeliest: DR Congo win · 45%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 31%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Uganda23%30%−7
OursMarket
Draw32%39%−7
OursMarket
DR Congo45%31%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 69% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 61% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 49% | −15 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Uganda
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 2 · at DR Congo (A)2-0
- Sep 29 · v Libya (H)1-0
- Sep 24 · at Tunisia (A)1-1
- Nov 18 · at Morocco (A)0-4
- Nov 14 · v Chad (H)2-1
DR Congo
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 2 · v Uganda (H)0-2
- Sep 28 · at Zimbabwe (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Equatorial Guinea (H)2-0
- Jul 1 · at England (A)1-2
- Jun 27 · v Uzbekistan (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Uganda | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-3 | 3-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.