NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:30 · Újpest vs MTK Budapest
Likeliest: Újpest win · 46%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Újpest46%47%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+2
OursMarket
MTK Budapest28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 64% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 63% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Újpest
LossWinWin
- Aug 8 · at Kisvárda FC (A)4-2
- Aug 2 · v Debreceni VSC (H)4-2
- Jul 24 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-2
MTK Budapest
WinDrawLoss
- Aug 7 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)2-3
- Aug 1 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)3-3
- Jul 27 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)3-0