NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 17 · 17:30 · Újpest vs Puskás Akadémia
Likeliest: Újpest win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Újpest41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Puskás Akadémia32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Újpest
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Dorogi FC (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Ferencváros TC (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Vasas (H)3-1
Puskás Akadémia
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at ETO FC Győr (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Budapest Honvéd FC (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Mezőörs KSE (A)8-1
- Sep 6 · at Zalaegerszegi TE (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Újpest | Puskás Akadémia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.