NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 · Újpest vs Vasas
Likeliest: Újpest win · 45%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Újpest45%42%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Vasas29%32%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 63% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 56% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Újpest
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 21 · at Paksi FC (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v MTK Budapest (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Kisvárda FC (A)4-2
- Aug 2 · v Debreceni VSC (H)4-2
- Jul 24 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-2
Vasas
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 22 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)5-0
- Aug 2 · at Ferencváros TC (A)0-0
- Jul 26 · v ETO FC Győr (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Újpest | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-2 | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.