NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · Újpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Likeliest: Újpest win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Újpest50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Zalaegerszegi TE26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Újpest
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · at Dorogi FC (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Ferencváros TC (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Vasas (H)3-1
- Aug 21 · at Paksi FC (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v MTK Budapest (H)1-1
Zalaegerszegi TE
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Dunaharaszti MTK (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at ETO FC Győr (A)0-3
- Aug 17 · v Ferencváros TC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Újpest | Zalaegerszegi TE |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-2 | 3-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.