UEFA Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 18:45 · Ukraine vs Hungary
Likeliest: Ukraine win · 35%
A 31% draw. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ukraine35%40%−5
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+5
OursMarket
Hungary34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ukraine
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · v Northern Ireland (H)0-3
- Sep 28 · at Georgia (A)0-0
- Sep 25 · at Hungary (A)0-0
- May 31 · at Poland (A)2-0
- Mar 31 · v Albania (H)1-0
Hungary
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 2 · v Georgia (H)1-0
- Sep 28 · at Northern Ireland (A)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Ukraine (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Kazakhstan (H)3-1
- Jun 5 · v Finland (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Ukraine | Hungary |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.