3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:00 · Ullern vs Grei
Likeliest: Ullern win · 67%
Likely score: 3–1
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ullern67%64%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−1
OursMarket
Grei16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 80% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ullern
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · at KFUM Oslo II (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Heming (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Vålerenga IF II (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Ready (A)3-4
- Sep 5 · v Asker (H)2-6
Grei
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Asker (H)4-3
- Sep 26 · at Ready (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Heming (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Konnerud IL (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v FK Union Carl Berner (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Ullern | Grei |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.